Thursday, September 3, 2009

What Ray Kurzweil is saying about the growth of technology, in a nut shell, is that we can in fact closely predict the future of technology. This is based on what information we have already. While it is impossible to predict the outcome of exact companies or technologies, the average data you get when you look at all of them gives us an incredible smooth exponential curve that allows us to see how the technology will developed in the future.

The idea of an exponential curve is almost hard to grasp. As I'm sure most other people are, I would have thought of technology as a rather linear progression. But in all honesty, if I look back at the state of computers when I was in elementary school to how they are now, I guess that an exponential curve makes perfect sense. The computers I used in grade school are thousands, if not millions of times less powerful that the one that I am typing on now. It is extraordinary to then think of what will come next given this exponential growth.

Kurzweil talks about is predictions for technology, and some of the things he says are quite remarkable. The development of electronic blood cells and their advancements is unbelievable to think about, like something that you would think about in a science fiction novel. And for him to say that these things are actually predictable is amazing.

Truthfully, I can't imagine how this technology will change our lives. It's hard to fathom what the future will be, even if we can predict the technology that it will bring. It's like if you had asked me about it even seven years ago, I wouldn't have been able to grasp what computers would be today. But what a can say, as a nerd, I am genuinely excited for the technology that the future brings and I hope that what Kurzweil is saying is reality, because let's face it, that would just be awesome.

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